Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.008674 0.009793 0.011002 0.012408 0.013997 0.015738 0.017792
2025-12-14 0.006746 0.008249 0.010010 0.012226 0.014945 0.018174 0.022309
2025-12-21 0.005570 0.007195 0.009205 0.011879 0.015348 0.019705 0.025611
2025-12-28 0.005038 0.006807 0.009097 0.012283 0.016612 0.022308 0.030399
2026-01-04 0.004571 0.006421 0.008910 0.012512 0.017609 0.024587 0.034914
2026-01-11 0.004216 0.006132 0.008801 0.012802 0.018670 0.027001 0.039793
2026-01-18 0.003810 0.005719 0.008462 0.012709 0.019146 0.028587 0.043581
2026-01-25 0.003489 0.005391 0.008207 0.012696 0.019710 0.030318 0.047698
2026-02-01 0.003165 0.005025 0.007853 0.012489 0.019941 0.031535 0.051094
2026-02-08 0.002949 0.004803 0.007696 0.012564 0.020604 0.033452 0.055741
2026-02-15 0.002720 0.004539 0.007447 0.012461 0.020957 0.034884 0.059688
2026-02-22 0.002592 0.004427 0.007430 0.012734 0.021942 0.037415 0.065683
2026-03-01 0.002345 0.004097 0.007031 0.012335 0.021768 0.038006 0.068423
2026-03-08 0.002159 0.003858 0.006766 0.012143 0.021935 0.039195 0.072327
2026-03-15 0.001969 0.003592 0.006432 0.011799 0.021793 0.039812 0.075221
2026-03-22 0.001911 0.003561 0.006508 0.012199 0.023039 0.043027 0.083235
2026-03-29 0.001832 0.003483 0.006493 0.012427 0.023976 0.045737 0.090507
2026-04-05 0.001767 0.003426 0.006510 0.012715 0.025045 0.048774 0.098675
2026-04-12 0.001658 0.003275 0.006339 0.012623 0.025361 0.050370 0.104080
2026-04-19 0.001568 0.003154 0.006214 0.012609 0.025829 0.052298 0.110318
2026-04-26 0.001464 0.002995 0.006003 0.012404 0.025886 0.053396 0.114901
2026-05-03 0.001397 0.002910 0.005932 0.012479 0.026527 0.055736 0.122333
2026-05-10 0.001318 0.002791 0.005783 0.012377 0.026783 0.057286 0.128165